|
|
Understanding "Sequestration"
If you like political drama, you're in luck. It seems like just
yesterday the news was filled with references to the fiscal cliff. Now,
coming to theaters everywhere, is "sequestration." Look for
more political confrontation to unfold as sequestration gets under way.
What exactly is sequestration?
"Sequestration" refers to a series of automatic,
across-the-board spending cuts to federal government agencies that are
scheduled to take place in fiscal years 2013 through 2021. The cuts,
totaling $1.2 trillion, will be split evenly between defense and domestic
discretionary spending. The cuts are effective March 1. (The cuts were
originally scheduled to take effect January 1 but were postponed to March
1 as part of the last-minute fiscal cliff deal reached on New Year's
Day.)
How did sequestration come into being?
Sequestration was created from the August 2011 standoff over the U.S.
debt ceiling. In conjunction with agreeing to raise the debt ceiling
(which allowed the U.S. Treasury to pay its monetary obligations and
avoid a default), Congress imposed approximately $2 trillion worth of
spending cuts--$1 trillion that was spelled out in the debt ceiling bill
(the Budget Control Act of 2011) and another approximately $1 trillion
that would be implemented through sequestration--a broad,
across-the-board series of default spending cuts that would take effect
beginning in 2013.
The idea was that sequestration would be a measure of last resort, and
that Congress could act to replace the sequestration cuts with an equal amount
of alternate spending reductions. Indeed, the Budget Control Act of 2011
created a deficit reduction "supercommittee" that was charged
with reaching consensus on additional budget cuts that would avoid
sequestration. The supercommittee failed, paving the way for
sequestration to take effect.
What's going to be cut?
The automatic cuts are effective March 1, 2013. From 2013 through
2021, sequestration is scheduled to cut $1.2 trillion from government
agencies, split evenly between defense and domestic programs. More than
$500 billion is scheduled to be cut from the Defense Department and other
national security agencies. The remaining cuts will affect a variety of
domestic programs, including education, public safety, energy, national
parks, food inspections, housing aid, transportation, and law
enforcement.
Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare benefits are exempt from
sequestration. Although cuts to Medicare provider payments are on the
table, they can't exceed 2% of current payments.
In 2013, the cuts will total $85 billion (sequestration originally
called for approximately $109 billion in cuts this year, but the American
Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 reduced the required cuts by $24 billion).
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that in 2013, funds for defense
spending (other than spending for military personnel) will be cut by
about 8%, and nondefense spending subject to automatic reductions will be
cut by between 5% and 6%. (Source: Congressional Budget Office, The
Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023, February
2013)
You may have heard a great deal about what's going to happen as a
result of the sequester, and much of it has likely been alarming. It's
important to understand, though, that the government will not be shutting
down. In fact, while it's hard to know exactly how things will play out
as the cuts are implemented, most individuals are probably not going to
notice a significant, immediate effect. Federal agencies will notify
employees of possible furloughs, and the Defense Department will do the
same with civilian employees, but those furloughs likely won't take
effect for at least a month. In addition to potential layoffs and
furloughs, individual agencies will begin announcing and implementing
other cost-saving measures.
Wait, there's more ...
While it hasn't received the same level of attention as sequestration,
there's another problem rapidly approaching--the government is running
out of money again. Federal funding for the current fiscal year expires
on March 27, 2013. Unless Congress authorizes additional funding, a
partial government shutdown would result.
In addition, a few months later, expect another debt ceiling debate.
The federal government reached its $16.394 trillion debt ceiling limit at
the end of 2012. Congress subsequently suspended the debt ceiling limit
until May 19, 2013, and although the U.S. Treasury has some ability to
continue operations beyond that date, at some point the debt ceiling
debate will need to be addressed. Thus, it's conceivable that any short-term
agreement on sequestration would include provisions that address these
deadlines as well.
Whether Congress addresses some or all of these issues over the coming
weeks or months is anyone's guess. So stay tuned. And pass the popcorn. |
|
|
|
So Jack in response to your article here is what I see:
1. Add up all the people who directly and immediately benefit from the government’s largess (e.g. no budget, expanding debt, printing money, legislative pork riders, expanding debit ceiling, artificially low interest rates, expanded social programs, corporate welfare, oil subsidies, misc. special interests, equity investors, a strong military, etc.
2. Add up all the people who directly and immediately benefit from government austerity (increased unemployment, lower profits, less military preparedness, social costs associated with fewer government programs, transfer of legislated activities from the feds to the states, sale of GM stock at a significant loss to gain income, massive housing foreclosures, higher taxes,…) Oh sorry! I could not identify any segment of society that benefits directly and immediately from government austerity so all I could do was outline some of the impacts. If I have not made the point here are some more impacts you mentioned, “cuts will affect a variety of domestic programs, including education, public safety, energy, national parks, food inspections, housing aid, transportation, and law enforcement”.
3. Although I think it would be good if it did occur, I think your right, “the government will not be shutting down.”
4. And as you say, “as the cuts are implemented, most individuals are probably not going to notice a significant, immediate effect.”
5. I disagree that, “Whether Congress addresses some or all of these issues over the coming weeks or months is anyone's guess. In fact, …. it's hard to know exactly how things will play out”
6. When you compare 1 vs. 2 above, unfortunately, there is no compelling reason not to have the government continue to operate out of control. It has been going on in California for decades. Furthermore, look at the city of Detroit. Do you see anyone being held accountable for the mess that city got itself into. Sadly no.
7. As long as our leaders are not held personally accountable, people continue to believe in a free lunch. The question then is, when is this bubble going to burst . If you think 2008 was bad, wait until 20XX. Just ask the Spanish or the Greeks.
Can you believe that I am an optimist?
|
No comments:
Post a Comment